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When a football team has as bad of a season as the Houston Texans did in 2005 (2-14 record, outscored 431-260), there is at least a silver lining to look forward to in the offseason: the number one pick in the NFL entry draft. Selecting the right player in the draft can elevate the team from last place to first in just a few short seasons.

For a recent example, one need only look at the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts were perennial cellar-dwellers in the 1990s, which led to several high draft picks and the acquisition of such players as Marshall Faulk and Marvin Harrison. In 1997, the Colts had another horrendous year, losing the first 10 games of the season before eventually finishing at 3-13. This was the worst record in the league, and guaranteed that they would get the number one draft pick. They chose Peyton Manning, and allowed him to start all 16 games in his rookie year. Manning didn't deliver immediate results; instead, the point of this "baptism by fire" approach was to allow him to learn the game faster than if he stood around carrying a clipboard for the first season.

Manning lost the first four games of the season before getting the very first win of his career in a 17-12 Week Five victory over the San Diego Chargers. That marked one of only three wins on the season for Manning and the Colts, as Indianapolis posted their second consecutive 3-13 season. But Manning was a quick study, and helped turn the team around in just a couple of seasons. Now the Colts are consistent contenders for the AFC title, and Manning is practically a Pro Bowl lock.

That's an example of what making the right decision on draft day can do for a team. However, there are certainly no guarantees that the number one overall pick will turn out to be the savior that everyone is hoping for. Let's take a look back at some of the overall number one picks from the past and see how they fared in their NFL careers.

Tim Couch (1999)
Seven of the last eight number one overall picks have been quarterbacks, and Tim Couch was among them.  Four more quarterbacks were chosen after Couch, for a total of five within the first 12 picks.  This prompted media analysts to dub these young men the "Quarterback Class of 1999" and intense scrutiny followed. Couch went to Cleveland; Donovan McNabb was on his way to Philadelphia; the Bengals chose Akili Smith out of Oregon; Minnesota grabbed Daunte Culpepper; and the Chicago Bears selected Cade McNown from UCLA. If you're a fan of the sport, you should immediately be able to pick out which of these guys found success in the league and which didn't.

Unfortunately for Couch, he has had a very stormy NFL career. He started 14 games as a rookie for the Cleveland Browns in 1999, a move that some critics say doomed the former Kentucky standout right from the start. Unlike Peyton Manning, who benefited tremendously from playing as a rookie, it seemed that this was not the proper route to take with Couch. He completed 223 out of 399 passes in 15 appearances for a total of 2,447 yards and 15 touchdowns. He also threw 13 interceptions, but that's to be expected from a rookie quarterback in the league.
Couch's second season in Cleveland didn't go much better. Though he got off to a great start by throwing for over 1,400 yards and seven touchdowns through the first seven games, a thumb injury sustained in practice effectively ended his season.

Couch's development proceeded in a shaky manner, but he did show some improvement over the course of the next two seasons. In 2001, he threw for over 3,000 yards and had 17 touchdown passes for the Browns. However, his interception total was still alarmingly high at 21 for the season. Then, in 2002, he had what would turn out to be his best year as an NFL quarterback. He threw for over 2,800 yards and 18 touchdowns in just 14 appearances as he led the Browns to a 9-7 record and the postseason berth that everyone had been waiting of since Couch's arrival in 1999. But another injury kept Couch on the sidelines during the Browns' playoff loss.

Things came to an abrupt end for Couch in 2003. The Browns' coaching staff finally got tired of his inconsistent play, and pulled him out of the Week 7 game against the San Diego Chargers after Couch threw 2 interceptions and failed to move the offense. The starting job went to Kelly Holcomb after that, and the Tim Couch era in Cleveland was essentially over.

Couch subsequently signed on with the Green Bay Packers as a backup to Brett Favre, but was waived by that team too. He hasn't seen any playing time in the NFL since the 2003 season.

David Carr (2002)
In professional sports, I don't think anyone expects expansion teams to come in and start winning right away. It's difficult to build an organization from scratch, as the Houston Texans have discovered in their first four seasons in the league. They started out by selecting David Carr out of Fresno State as their first draft pick ever. Much like Couch, however, Carr has not panned out thus far in his career.

Like Manning and Couch, Carr was immediately thrust into the starter's role. He played in all 16 games during his rookie season and had moderate success, throwing for 2,592 yards and 9 touchdowns in 2002. But he also threw 15 interceptions, which lowered his passer rating to a lackluster 62.8. The Texans finished the season at 4-12, but there were several bright spots that kept fans hopeful for better results the next year.

The 2003 season did indeed bring about a few improvements, but nothing significant for the team as a whole. Carr appeared in only 12 games that year, throwing for 2,013 yards and 9 touchdowns versus 13 interceptions. His passer rating crept up to 69.5, which was still nowhere near what the coaches and fans were expecting from him.

The questions now started to come in about whether Carr was the right man for the job. Was his less than overwhelming performance due to a lack of big-league ability, or was this the result of not having the right supporting cast around him?  There are compelling arguments for both viewpoints, but some people think the jury is still out.

Most recently, Carr threw for 2,488 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2005. He only threw 11 interceptions, which made his overall passer rating a 77.2. Detractors are concerned not only because Carr has failed to put up huge numbers or emerge as a solid leader, but also because the Texans as a team haven't benefited from his presence. After improving to a 7-9 record in 2004, the team took a giant step backward and finished with a dismal 2-14 record in 2005, earning the overall number one draft pick again.
The organization recently announced that they have chosen to exercise the option on Carr's original contract, meaning they will lock up his services for the next three years. This move indicates pretty clearly that the team has not given up on him, and also shows that they intend to take former USC star Reggie Bush with the number one pick rather than quarterbacks Matt Leinart or Vince Young.

Carson Palmer (2003)
Carson Palmer came into the league under a double curse. He was the number one overall draft pick, plus he was the Heisman Trophy winner. As we have seen in the past, sometimes these distinctions place an inordinate amount of pressure on athletes -- a kind of pressure that often ruins careers.

Palmer was drafted by the Cincinnati Bengals, but unlike the other three quarterbacks mentioned in this article, he did not play in any games during his rookie season. Instead, he watched from the sidelines as Jon Kitna called the signals for the team. However, it was understood that Palmer would eventually take over, and that's exactly what happened in 2004.

Palmer started 13 games for the Bengals in that season, and completed 263 passes for 2,897 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions. Although those numbers are respectable for a quarterback playing his first full season in the NFL, I don't think anyone could have predicted what was going to happen in 2005.

The Bengals got off to a fast start in 2005, winning their first four games in a row. Palmer also began the season in incredible fashion, throwing for 1,062 yards and an amazing 9 touchdowns in that span. His passer rating never dipped below 107.0 in those games, which was another positive sign for Bengals' fans.

Analysts around the league started paying more attention to Palmer and the Bengals, wondering if this was all just some kind of fluke on their part. While the Bengals dropped their next contest against the Jacksonville Jaguars by a score of 23-20, Palmer never faltered. He actually continued on his torrid pace throughout the entire season, leading the Bengals to an 11-5 record, the division championship, and a playoff berth.

In doing so, Palmer posted career highs in every passing category, and was among the top quarterbacks in the league all season long. He finished the season with 3,836 yards, 32 touchdowns, and just 12 interceptions. More importantly, his season-long passer rating was 101.1, which was second only to Peyton Manning. Palmer's passer rating was above 100 in 11 of the Bengals' 16 regular season contests.

Unfortunately for Palmer and the Bengals, the season ended on a downer. On the team's very first play from scrimmage against the Steelers in the playoffs, Palmer completed a 66-yard pass to Chris Henry. After Palmer released the ball, he got hit in the knee and was knocked out of the game with torn ligaments. The Bengals went on to lose, and Palmer went on to have surgery.

From examining the careers of four quarterbacks who were selected number one overall in the NFL draft, it's easy to see that nothing is certain in professional football. With two highly-touted quarterbacks slated to be high draft picks this year, it will be interesting to see if Leinart and Young turn out like Manning and Palmer or like Couch and Carr.