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An Amateur Bracketologist Weighs In

Now that the seeds for the NCAA Tournament have been announced, the second guessing has begun. Of course, the points of debate depend on who you talk to, but for this amateur, an independent assessment gives the selection committee a strong rating.

But a far from perfect one none-the-less.

First off, the selection committee handled the top four seeds right. Putting Duke at the very top was a no-brainer after the Blue Devils capped a stellar regular season by winning their seventh conference tournament championship in eight years. Other number ones were Connecticut, the only other team to be ranked first in the nation this season besides the Dukies, fellow Big East power Villanova, and Memphis, another team that capped a superb regular season by winning their conference tournament championship.

Two other schools seemingly had a shot at a number one slot going into their respective tourneys. Texas of the Big Twelve and Ohio State in the Big Ten each had the chance to move up and make the number one choices somewhat debatable with wins, but both succumbed in their conference finals.

After that, there has been some cause for criticism, some of it seemingly justified. Tennessee receiving a number two seeding appeared absurd. The Volunteers finished a modest 21-7 overall and lost four of their final six games, including a loss in the SEC tournament to South Carolina.

On the flip side, the committee dropped Boston College a No. 4 seed despite the Eagles taking Duke to the wire in ACC Championship game down on Tobacco Road. As Fox Sports pointed out, the recent coaches' poll has B.C. ranked seventh in the nation. Tennessee, on the other hand, is ranked 19th.

Perhaps as much of a disservice to the Eagles is the fourth seeding and how that plays out within the bracket. Villanova, the top seed, would have to beat B.C. to get to the elite eight, that is of course if both make it to the sweet sixteen.

Yet another surprise had to be the seeding of Gonzaga at number three. Given the team's regular season and tournament performance, the Zags have had a season to remember. But clearly the selection committee thought them overrated, dropping them from a potential number two seed.

In what had to be a great surprise even to Jim Boeheim, Syracuse was given a fifth seed after running the table at the Big East Tournament. The Orange somehow managed to top Cincinnati on a last minute shot, then shock UConn, Georgetown, and Pittsburgh. The loss by Cincy was extremely costly to the Bearcats who in losing were unable to give the Big East nine teams, that despite an 18-12 record against the 7th-toughest schedule in the country.

Critics immediately noted that Indiana was 18-11 against the 19th-toughest schedule in the country. One fewer loss got the Hoosiers a No. 6 seed while Cincinnati headed to the NIT. Ouch.

However, the most surprising omission had to be Missouri State. Now the lesser known Missouri Valley Conference is not exactly the same as the Big Ten or the ACC, yet the conference had four teams make the NCAA tourney, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, Wichita State and Bradley. However, Missouri State finished 12-6 in that conference and had an Rating Percentage Index that ranked them 20th nationally. They were the highest RPI team omitted from the Big Dance while, Air Force with a computer-generated RPI ranking of 50, managed to get in.

The Ratings Percentage Index reportedly utilizes a formula that includes the teams' record, the records of its opponents, wins at home are weighed so as to be slightly devalued while wins on the road are weighed so as to be glorious. However, after many experts tried to replicate the NCAA's numbers, the committee appeared to move away from using them this year, especially in the case of Missouri State.

On a high note for a school, UCLA returned to a position of prominence, receiving what is considered the highest of the No. 2 seedings. Most importantly, the Bruins get to play in the Oakland Regional, and can make it all the way to the Final Four without ever having to leave California.

Over all the consensus has been that the Big East was the best conference this year, and the committee responded by handing out eight slots to the Big East. Surprising to many was that the Big Ten got six bids, a clear committee bias that the Big Ten was the second strongest conference this year. The other high profile leagues, the Pacific 10, Big 12 and Atlantic Coast conferences all got four bids, matching that of the Missouri Valley Conference.

Of course, only once we have made it to the sweet sixteen will we know for sure which teams were overrated and which conferences were truly the strongest. But all in all it appears the committee once again did decent work in a thankless job.

And most importantly, they did get the top part right. The only two teams to have been ranked No. 1 this year, Duke and Connecticut, would play for the National Championship, if they both get that far.

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