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Expectations and Upsets

By Ed Jennett

The Eastern and Western Conferences have been vastly different over the last several years. Defensive, smash-mouth hockey has been the style of the East. Offensive, fast hockey has been the name of the game in the West. The trend of the conferences being polar opposites continued in the first round of the playoffs this year.

The higher seeds of the East did what was expected of them and advanced to round two. Every higher seed in the West on the other hand was upset in the first round. This sets up a second round that features the expected match ups in one conference and unexpected battles caused by upsets in the other.


Eastern Conference


(1) Ottawa vs. (4) Buffalo

After facing each other eight times in the regular season because the new NHL schedules concentrate on divisional play, the top two teams in the Northeast Division will meet a minimum of four more times this year. The Ottawa Senators have home ice throughout the rest of the playoffs in part because they won their regular season series against the Buffalo Sabres five games to three. Ottawa finished the regular season with 113 points, just three ahead of the 110 points earned by Buffalo.

Both clubs feature high-scoring attacks and lead the first round in scoring with the Senators averaging 4.6 goals in their five games against Tampa and the Sabres averaging 4.5 goals in their six games against Philadelphia. The difference is the distribution of the offense. Ottawa has been carried by three players this offseason. Forwards Martin Havlat, Dany Heatley, and Jason Spezza have combined for 30 points while their teammates have combined for 33 points. No other Senator has more than six points. The Sabres have five players averaging at least a point per game and have eight players with two or more goals.

The series will obviously be close, but just as they did in the regular season, the Senators will prevail.

Prediction: Ottawa in 7


(2) Carolina vs. (3) New Jersey

Defense will be the key to the other Eastern Conference second round series. After losing the Games 1 and 2 of their first round series with the Montreal Canadiens, the Carolina Hurricanes allowed only five goals in the next four games to win the series in six. The New Jersey Devils however were even more impressive in allowing only four goals while sweeping the rival New York Rangers in the first round. New Jersey had also won 11 straight games to finish the regular season.

Defense and winning streaks are not the only things that the teams have in common. Both clubs are four lines deep, with two scoring lines, a checking line, and a physical line. The major difference in the series is goaltending. Carolina rookie goalie Cam Ward has been impressive since taking over veteran goalie Martin Gerber. After Gerber was in net for the first two games, Ward took over to start Game 3 and the Hurricanes have not lost since. Ward had a save percentage over .940 and a goals against under 1.50 in the four games that he played. His Devils counterpart Martin Brodeur was even more impressive in holding the Rangers to only four goals in the first round. But Brodeur is looking forward to other number fours this post season. The four series wins he needs to become a four-time Stanley Cup Winner.

Prediction: New Jersey in 6


Western Conference


(5) San Jose vs. (8) Edmonton

The Edmonton Oilers were supposed to give the Detroit Red Wings a fight in the first round, but they weren’t supposed to win it. Now Edmonton has to deal with two let downs. The first is playing the San Jose Sharks after eliminating the first-place Red Wings. The second is playing the San Jose Sharks after the rival Calgary Flames were eliminated by Anaheim. Since Calgary and Edmonton would have been the highest and lowest remaining seeds respectively, they would have faced off in the second round.

The key player in this series will be San Jose center Joe Thornton. While a member of the Boston Bruins, Thornton would disappear in the playoffs, as did most of his teammates. If Thornton and his explosive line mate Jonathan Cheechoo can recapture the magic they had in the regular season, San Jose may be on its way to the Western Conference Finals. If they cannot, this series will be dominated by the Edmonton duo of defenseman Chris Pronger and goaltender Dwayne Roloson. Pronger and Roloson were the best players in Edmonton/Detroit series and will have an easy time shutting down San Jose if the two Sharks stars are not at their best.

Prediction: Edmonton in 6


(6) Anaheim vs. (7) Colorado

Will the real Jose Theodore please stand up? The Avalanche goalie was unimpressive during the regular season, but seems to have (finally) found his game in the playoffs. Theodore made 50 saves in the series clinching victory over the Dallas Stars and appears ready to provide Colorado with the same postseason heroics that he gave the Montreal Canadiens. That is unless he reverts back to his poor play of the first three games of the series, when he allowed nine goals on 65 shots, resulting in a .878 save percentage.

Fortunately, unlike his time in Montreal, Theodore will not have to carry this team. This Colorado club is lead by team captain Joe Sakic and his wingers Milan Hejduk and Andre Brunette. The top line of the Avalanche scored the big goals that sent the second –seeded Stars searching for their golf clubs and fishing poles. The trio is tied for the team scoring lead with seven points each.

Anaheim has a goaltender that has led the team to the Stanley Cup Finals in J.S. Giguire. But Colorado will most likely not have to face him, at least not at the beginning of the series. Rookie Ilja Bryzgalov should get the start since he successfully manned the nets when the Ducks faced elimination in Games 6 and 7. Bryzgalov allowed only one goal in Game 6 and shutout Calgary in the deciding Game 7. The big game situations that he experienced will be needed in this series.

The teams played four times during the regular season and each game was decided by one goal. Colorado won three out of the four contests, including one overtime victory.

Prediction: Colorado in 7

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