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RIP 2006 Subway Series by Rich Carriero
Friday, October 20, 2006
Was there any surer thing six weeks ago than a World Series champ from the big apple? The Yankees and Mets for the first time in history each won their respective leagues with the best record in baseball. During the good old days before 1969, this feat alone would have been enough to lock up a subway series. In fact for about half of the years between 1923 and 1962 the Yankees topped the American league and the Giants or Dodgers won the National. Back then the best record in the league was not just a paper championship but the pennant, signed sealed and delivered.
Now, of course, in the era of the Wild Card and a three round tournament to decide a championship its not so simple. More than any city New York has dominated the wild card era. The Yankees won the inaugural American League Wild Card and two of the first three while the Mets won back to back Wild Cards in 1999 and 2000. In the current playoff format the Yankees have been to the playoffs each year since the 1994 strike and have won 4 championships, 6 pennants, 10 division championships including 9 in a row and two wild cards.
The Mets have not enjoyed as much success in the same span but they have won the NL pennant once with one division championship-ending Atlanta's death grip on the honor-and two wild cards. In 2000 New York enjoyed the ultimate supremacy over baseball by hosting the first subway series the 1950's. The 2000 World Series was not without drama with a thrilling Game 1 extra inning victory for the Yankees, the climax of the personal war between Roger Clemens in the bat throwing incident and finally a 9th inning heroic series winning single by Luis Sojo in game 5.
Unfortunately New York's glory days for the most part ended in 2000. The Yankees have continued to make the playoffs and after 9/11 roused from mediocrity to contest an unforgettable world series into the 9th inning of game 7 but fell short. In 2003 the Yankees won another epic battle with Red Sox but were shut out by stifling pitching and timely hitting against the Marlins. In 2004 their collapse against the Red Sox is a thing of legend, celebrated as the greatest moment in Red Sox history and mourned as the worst for the Bronx bombers. Since then the Yankees have been beaten in consecutive first round series against the Angels and this year against the Tigers.
There is a very logical pattern to Yankee futility since the 2000 series. A number of the Yankee greats of the glory years retired or aged into greater ineffectiveness. Guys like Paul O'Neill, Scott Brosius, Tino Martinez and Bernie Williams anchored the team with solid gutsy play during the championship years but since then they have disappeared along with their heroic October feats. Bernie Williams, Jorge Posada, Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera are the only players left from the championship years and only Jeter, Rivera and Posada continue to perform at an all star level on a regular basis. The soul of the team that won world titles during the 90's is gone.
First to go was the pitching. The 1996 championship starting pitchers were Andy Pettite, Jimmy Key, David Cone and Kenny Rogers; Pettite was the last of these four starters to leave the team in 2003. Some pitchers came and went over the years but still contributed to the success like David Wells, Roger Clemens and Orlando Hernandez. While they are undoubtedly great pitchers and competitors none of today's starters seem to have the unshakable nerve of David Cone, the wily showmanship and mastery of Orlando Hernandez or Andy Pettite's consistency. Randy Johnson's great performances are by and large behind him and he has never seemed comfortable in the pin stripes. Mike Mussina has been the most consistent pitcher since 2000 but much like his near perfect game against the Red Sox, he always seems to be one finishing stroke away from greatness. Mussina always wins 15 games a season but never 20. The other starters in the Yankee stable show youth and promise for the future but with the exception of Chien Ming Wang no young starter has been used consistently.
During the championship years opposing teams had to score their runs against the Yankee starters, which in itself was no easy task, or else they faced the almost certain doom of the Yankee bullpen. The combination of Ramiro Mendoza, Jeff Nelson, Mike Stanton and Mariano Rivera could effectively end a game in the 6th inning. While Rivera remains one of the best closers in baseball and is a certain first ballot hall of famer, the rest of this relief corps is gone. In its stead Scott Proctor, Kyle Farnesworth, Ron Villone and Octavio Dotel have time and again folded in crucial moments, allowing teams to tie and move ahead in games against good teams.
The vaunted Yankee hitting of yore always relied on clutch hits by an endless conveyor belt of workman like heroes. Jim Leyritz, Scott Brosius, Tino Martinez, Bernie Williams, Luis Sojo and many others provided unforgettable October moments winning playoff games and championships. None of these players hit over .300 consistently or 50 homeruns but they came through in heart pounding intense moments. The current battery of hitters-Alex Rodriguez, Jason Giambi, Gary Sheffield, Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon-meanwhile is a parade of players with MVP like numbers. Each of these players has had moments where they came through as heroes but consistently in October, the Yankee offense has turned cold. A-Rod's October woes are notorious in New York but Giambi and Sheffield have also performed playoff Houdini acts.
While the current Yankee team can definitely be considered a success story by the standards of perrennial losers like the Brewers, Devil Rays, Royals or Rangers, the character of this team is not of the type that wins championships. The Yankees can expect division titles and 95+ win seasons but they will consistently lose to younger, hungrier teams-teams like the Yankees used to be. The Angels in 2002 and 2005, the 2003 Marlins, 2004 Red Sox and 2006 Tigers all have a similar profile. All of these teams have dogged starters who become absolute magicians in the October spotlight against the Yankees. Kenny Roger's will and craftsmanship against the Bombers in game 3 is a highlight that will not soon be forgot. Nor will Josh Beckett's gem in game 6 of the '03 series. Meanwhile consistent all stars like Curt Schilling and John Lackey continue to baffle them. The bullpen's of these teams have all been incredibly impressive. Joel Zumaya, Scot Shields, Mike Timlin and Todd Jones have put up crucial zeroes in late innings, forcing the Yankees to lose their patience and make ugly desperate swings seeking the homerun ball.
With the exception of the Red Sox power-which rivals that of the Yankees, the Angels, Tigers, Diamondbacks and Marlins have all relied on contact hitting, agressive baserunning and clutch RBI hits and sacrifices. Certain faces appear over and over again earning success against New York. Chone Figgins, Curtis Granderson and David Eckstein constantly get on base, steal and score runs. Clutch hitters, known for contact more than power, appear over and over again winning games in crucial situations not with towering home runs but line drive singles, sinking liners and bloops. I have a theory that the Yankees cannot beat any team with Craig Counsell, Ivan Rodriguez or Magglio Ordonez.
What we see and learn from the Yankees is that the moneyball theory of outspending your opponents does not work. A talented young pitcher with determination backed by a good defense and bullpen can put toss an entire lineup off all stars into the ash can. The Yankees must go younger and cheaper, developing a tight knit unit with chemistry that is hungry for success. The Yankees must not be afraid to fail, which is something that they have not been thus far willing to do.
The Mets, meanwhile have had no such qualms. In 2003 the Mets hit a low point with a humiliating record of 66-95 finishing last in the NL East-including a crushing 6 game season sweep delivered by the crosstown Yankees. The Mets team in '03 was in a rebuilding phase, dramatically different from the World Series team of 2000. Gone were the theatrics and gambles of Bobby Valentine's stewardship, replaced by the low key approach of Art Howe. Most of the 200o pitching staff including Al Leiter, Rick Reed, Bobby J. Jones, Bobby M. Jones and Mike Hampton were all long gone. Also gone were Jay Payton, Edgardo Alfonzo and Robin Ventura. Mike Piazza remained but injuries to his knees led to decreased performance and a call for the catcher to move to first base. The Mets also brought in Japanese sensation Kaz Matsui-a Japanese position player who insisted on playing first, a position he was completely unable to fill. The 2003 team floundered but it also marked the beginning of a rebuilding process that would culminate in this year's team.
With Omar Minaya as the new general manager and Willie Randolph as the new manager the Mets began to deal for super stars, aquiring Carlos Beltran in 2005 in the wake of his momentous postseason performance with the Astros in 2004. In 2006 the Mets brought in Carlos Delgado and Paul LoDuca were acquired from the Marlins to bring experience and power to the lineup. Pedro Martinez left the 2004 champion Red Sox to pitch for the Mets, joining Tom Glavine in what would become a powerful lineup. Billy Wagner came in as the new closer and These players would prove to be the seasoning, however, for what is essentially a homegrown team.
Jose Reyes, David Wright, Cliff Floyd, Chris Woodward and Endy Chavez are all Mets prospects who have enjoyed success with the team. Players like LoDuca and Jose Valentin have enjoyed unparalleled success with the new team and after a competative season in 2005 the 2006 broke through to new heights. The 2006 Mets teams took sole possession of first place on April 6th and held it for the rest of the season. The Mets consistently pummelled division rivals including the hated Braves and were the first team in the Major Leagues to earn a playoff berth. The Mets split the season series with the Yankees at 3 games a piece and were the class of the National League during the regular season. The Mets sent 6 players to the 2006 All-Star game, a club record. The Mets played in 2006 with a dynamic style of play that the club has lacked since the teams of the late 1980's. They were fast and aggressive and delivered clutch hits at the right moments. As the regular season wound down, however, their fortunes reversed and they lost Martinez and Hernandez from their pitching staff. Nonetheless the 2006 played heroically relying on timely offense and a fantastic bullpen to sweep the Los Angeles Dodgers. As they geared up to face the Cardinals, a team the Mets beat in the 2000 NLCS, many hoped the same formula would continue to bear fruit.
In the Cardinals the Mets faced a team similar to the Tigers team which beat the Yankees. Both teams relied heavily on pitching and defense to win games. Both were managed by masterminds of the game, Jim Leyland and Tony LaRussa-friends off the field. Both teams also fumbled down the stretch and were not given much chance to reach the fall classic. Unlike the Tigers, however, the Cardinals have more playoff experience; the Tigers have not been to the playoffs since 1987 while the Cardinals have earned a berth in every year since 2004 winning the NLDS in all 3 years and the NLCS in 2004. This experience would show itself as the series wore on.
In the first game Tom Glavine stifled the Cards and the Mets took the game 2-0. It appeared as though the Mets would make quick work of the series. During the second game the Mets consistently put up leads as they sought to put a hammerlock on the series but the Cardinals kept coming back, tying the game at 6 going into the 9th. Inexperienced closer Bill Wagner would then give up the game winning homerun and two more runs en route to a 9-6 defeat. Thanks to a rainout before game 1 the momentum the Cardinals seized in game 2 carried into Game 3 and the Mets were completely dominated by Jeff Suppan and were defeated 5-0. Suddenly the assets which had gotten the Mets to the League Championship, pitching and timely hitting were beginning to fail against determined veteran pitchers and clutch hitting performances. The Mets got the series back on track in game 4, however, battering Brad Thompson for a 12-5 victory. Jeff Weaver stifled the Mets however, seizing back the momentum in a 4-2 victory. John Maine staved off elimination in an equally heroic performance in game 6 that tied the series at 3 games apiece. The theme of dominant pitching continued into game 7 as Jeff Suppan kept the Mets completely off balance. Although New York scored 2 hits and a run off of Suppan in the first, they would not get another hit until the 9th. For the Mets Oliver Perez surprisingly had an equally dominating performance, getting out of jam after jam to limit the Cards to one run through 8 innings. By the 9th inning the game would be decided by the better bullpen. Finally in the 9th Aaron Heilman folded, giving up a 2 run homerun to Met killer Yadier Molia before a stunned Shea Stadium crowd and though the Mets loaded the bases in the bottom half of the frame, Adam Wainwright struck out Carlos Beltran to preserve the 3-1 victory and propel the Cards to the World Series.
The Mets and Yankees were both defeated by the same formula. Both teams were held completely off balance by dominating pitching. The Yankees chased braking balls from Kenny Rogers and Jeremy Bonderman that dove off the plate at the last second. The Yankees were also blown away by fireballers like Zumaya and Justin Verlander. The Mets meanwhile lost two crucial games because they could not solve one pitcher-Suppan. The Cardinals were outclassed offensively by the Mets and only won 83 games this season to the Mets 97 but one pitcher was able to completely grind that offense to a halt. Jeff Weaver provided another admirable performance to win a third game. This formula allowed the Cardinals to only post one offensively effective performance, scoring 9 runs in game 2. Both series clearly illustrate that pitching still wins championships. It is up to both teams to adapt if they hope to win in the future.
The Yankees have a postseason of soul searching ahead. The team must be completely overhauled to become youngers and faster with more reliable pitchers. That means the Steinbrenner formula of buying high priced aging stars must end. Many of the current hitters should be let go including Rodriguez, Sheffield and Williams. The farm system needs to be rebuilt so the team can be rejuvenated. Joe Torre escaped the block this year but he and Brian Cashman have only one year to show serious progress.
The Mets have less work to do. They should take a strong measure of pride from their season-start to finish. The loss of Martinez and Hernandez made their chances of winning it all this year a long shot, despite their talented offense and bullpen. This team has all of the elements of a championship team however. It has chemistry, talent, youth and a hunger for success. If the team is kept together with healthy arms and postseason experience now under their belt, they could very well be champions next October. Both teams could win it all next year with the right adjustments. But wait-isn't that what everyone thought a month ago? If there's anything that should be learned about baseball, it's that it is completely unpredictable. There will always be another hot Tigers or Cardinals team ready to rise out of obscurity.
5:49 PM
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